Economic modeling & forecasting

Demand, revenue and regional growth forecasting is essential to infrastructure planning as well as investment decision-making. It can also help secure funding and implement new transportation infrastructure. Utilizing varied tools and techniques, our work in this area has been integral to investment-grade demand and revenue studies, transit planning and long-range forecasting for planning agencies.

Taking account of relevant guidance and international best practice, our team builds and develops econometric, network and discrete choice models at the local, regional and national scales. We apply these models to support strategy development, business case development, funding and delivery. We advise clients making investment decisions about the value (both financial and economic) of major investments. In addition, we provide peer reviews and audits of models developed and applied by others. Finally, we bring to bear rigorous statistical and econometric modeling techniques to help clients answer a host of vital policy and strategy questions, such as estimating the economic and social benefits of infrastructure investments, or more fundamentally, how most effectively to provide and price public transportation services.

Demand forecasting supports strategy and system development, including the processes for attaining funding to build and operate new transportation infrastructure. Both the public and private sectors use demand forecasting for concessions, either to frame the contract or to support proposals.

How we can help you

We can support both public and private sector clients with a package of modeling and forecasting related skills. Our core offer includes:

• Demand, benefit and revenue modeling for infrastructure assets
• Estimates of regional population, employment and industrial growth
• “Hybrid” econometric and network modelling for roads, bridges and tunnels
• Analysis of optimal pricing and service levels for transit, rail and roads
• Risk assessment and modeling
• Micro-simulation